Friday, February 08, 2008

Political Prediction: Superdelegates

As you know, I like making political predictions. I've been saying that there's no way that the Democrats could have a brokered convention: after all, the only candidate who earned delegates other than the Big Two was Edwards, and he got less than .5%. The odds that Hilary and Barack are going to stay within .5% of each other are absurdly low. (However, this is what happened in Super Tuesday.)

Anyway, I've been ignoring a crucial fact: of the 4,000+ delegates, about 700 are Superdelegates, who get to vote for a candidate at whim. Depending on how cautious and cynical these Superdelegates are, the odds that Clinton and Obama could fail to get enough delegates by the convention drastically increases. It is well known that some Superdelegates have already cast their votes -- notably Ted Kennedy-- but they can always change their minds.

Anyway, this means that we can still hold out hope. I could punch up some numbers to calculate probabilities and margins, but that would be both difficult and pointless.

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Anonymous said...

what candidates do you like? one dem and one rep


Carsonist said...

Obama's OK, although he isn't solid enough on getting out of Iraq. Ron Paul's my choice for Reps.