Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The Brokered Convention

Every political fan hopes for one thing: The Brokered Convention. Here's the deal: If the parties get to the convention with no candidate holding the majority of the votes they need, then the convention is forced to go through multiple rounds of voting to determine the candidate. This, to political fans, is a fun thing.

Anyway, the odds are slim, particularly for the Democrats. To have a brokered Democratic convention, Obama and Clinton need to remain almost perfectly tied, and Edwards needs to retain his 10-15% support. As you can imagine, this is improbable for several reasons.

The Republicans do have a chance. There are three or four candidates who can rally some sort of support, and a good deal of that support is regional. Giuliani hopes to win the big states, Huckabee hopes to win the crazy states, and Romney plans to win the states that "don't count" for some reason. Anyway, if Romney wins Michigan, I could see every major candidate staying in it until the convention.

So here's my unjustified political prognostication: Obama wins the Dems, and a Republican brokered convention goes to Mccain, who dies of being older than death.

Now playing: Elton John - Pinball Wizard
via FoxyTunes

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